THE WAY OUT FOR PUTIN AND UKRAINE

In The Art of War by Sun Tzu, there are a number of recommendations that have survived the ages to become unchallenged axioms. One of those recommendations states that wars are won before any soldiers show up to do battle. A shoot the messenger philosophy insured that Putin was not given accurate intelligence about the invasion of Ukraine, and thus he began losing his special military operation before stepping one foot on his next door neighbour’s territory. Another recommendation involves giving your enemy a way out of the battle; the wisdom being that the opposing force is unlikely to make a violent last stand and inflict untold injuries upon your own soldiers if they still have the hope of survival within them.

This week brought alarming words from an ineloquent American president, which only served to escalate the possibility of nuclear tit-for-tat with a cornered rat. Should Armageddon be a word that is bandied about by a leader who is technically not at war with our acknowledged enemy? When his own intelligence service says there is no immediate threat of WWIII?

That was my first take on what took place at the Democratic fundraiser in question. But then I wondered if such words were carefully planned? Is it possible diplomacy is now in the works between Nato and Russia… before our very eyes, albeit spoken in code to the world’s news cameras?

Let’s go back to the beginning of the week. Russia officially annexes the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson. Putin says they will be forever Russia. Then he says Ukraine must now sit down and talk peace. But what did Putin not say? His spokesperson failed to identify where the borders of these oblasts will be. Putin failed to say Ukraine must promise never to join the European Union and Nato or else he would not entertain peace. Is Putin offering us the road map he will accept out of the mess he created? He wishes to declare victory by proclaiming that all the sacrifices were worth it because Russian-speaking territory has been liberated from years of fighting with Ukraine. The size of that territory is inconsequential. Could it be he would be happy with mere bubbles of Russian communities attached to the Russian border? Like pimples? It would appear he is open to being asked.

Then the U.S. releases an intelligence assessment that surmises Darya Dugina was killed by Ukraine. Agents infiltrated Russia and planted the car bomb. The U.S. sent a clear message to Zelensky that attacks within Russia with Nato hardware are not allowed. The U.S. will not accept escalation forced upon them. Then Biden signals with the Armageddon remark that it is time for Putin to get serious about cutting a deal for peace. Time is running out. And just like Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis, Biden is also willing to discuss an exit strategy.

Let me be clear that I think Putin is a butcher, a monster, an evil man. I think Zelensky is the bravest man on the planet and the true leader of the free world. But I also have a great deal of sympathy for those southern hemisphere nations who say the atrocities committed by Russian soldiers in Ukraine have happened elsewhere, and the world had not then rushed in to prop up those being assaulted and decimated. Yet, where the Ukraine war strikes a nerve with the West is that it reminds us of a genocide and prolonged conflict we promised ourselves would never happen again in Europe. It rips open scars we thought had healed and reveals trauma that has never gone away.

It is the worst kind of naiveté for those in the West to believe Russia will change. Just as it is foolhardy to believe Iran will suddenly get rid of the hijab because of public protests. It is also cruel to suggest to those craving freedom within such societies that we in the West are with them in spirit, and that those good wishes will help bring about systemic change. China has proven that a country can choose a path of authoritarian rule as well as create a large middle class. The two are not mutually exclusive. As the existential challenges of climate change and inequity inflict more and more pain upon societies, fewer countries will see traditional democracy as a practical way forward. The particular risk for Russia is that with Putin eventually gone, an even more totalitarian mob boss with an even greater messianic complex will take his place.

My grandfather was quite successful at business, and though I did not inherit his wealth, he did pass down to me a wealth of wisdom. Three pieces of advice have stuck with me. Firstly, never rub someone else’s nose in their own faults. It will not produce the desired result. They will simply double down on their destructive course of action. Secondly, never take the bait. If someone seeks conflict and you give in to their taunt, they’ve already bested you by making you play by their rules. And lastly, always give your opponent a way out of their dilemma… for if they see nothing but humiliation before them, you will have made an enemy for life. Who needs that kind of endless worry?

There are those in the UK establishment who cannot wait for the day that Ireland is united. For then the divisive politics of Northern Ireland will become another government’s problem. Is it not possible that gaining EU and Nato membership, while also being finally rid of Russian insurgents, who have been a thorn in Kyiv’s side for years, are all in Ukraine’s interests? Then liquidate all Russian assets in Western countries and use the cash to rebuild Ukraine. There are those who will say accommodating a land grab would lay down a precedent and devalue the principals of the United Nations. To that I would say it is time to admit to ourselves the United Nations has not lived up to the promise we all hoped it would deliver. Its hands are eternally tied by the permanent security council. Others would bring up Chamberlain and Munich. To which I would say we would be leaving Putin weaker, not stronger… hardly a repeat of 1938.

When the staring contest between the Soviet Union and the West was won, and the evil empire collapsed, what followed was ethnic cleansing and terrorism run amok. Is the world a safer or more dangerous place now? It is impossible to say if confrontation would have been inevitable had the Iron Curtain not fallen. But I do know I feel now as I did at the height of the Cold War: I am unwilling to sacrifice my family to the flames of nuclear conflagration under any circumstances. And, anyway, such a sacrifice will not bring back the massacred. It is time to end this war while it is still possible to find the way out and for the West to dictate the scope of Putin’s puny domestic win. Regardless, Ukraine is now forever a part of the West.